15 February 2012

Facebook, Twitter, Google will continue to be successful while they have a large barrier to entry -- not a large number of users, but infrastructure. When infrastructure of that scale becomes commodity, the market will fragment. Social Media should prepare for a time when they are not king of the hill and instead can provide the infrastructure for narrow-casting. There will be an explosion of social media sites, like the evolution from TV networks, to independent networks, to cable networks, to YouTube channels. Facebook could provide the platform for FB Cooking, FB SciFi, FB Travel, FB Arts, FB Science, FB Wealth, FB Sports, FB Weather, etc.

New Media will follow the same arc as old media. Performers will gravitate there while resources for production and distribution are limited. The first actors came from stage and theater. Many vaudeville performers transferred to television. New media will start with performers from the current entertainment industry, but will come of age when performers start and break-out on new media, and are sought after by old media to connect with a new audience.

When new media sites proliferate and splinter, the original ones will still be there -- just as the original TV networks are still there -- but greatly diminished in power and stature. One solution for new media companies is following the model of old media, with mergers of movie studios and TV networks, and those combined entertainment conglomerates owning cable networks and providing content. The large new media companies can provide the infrastructure for sponsoring and hosting specialized new media sites.


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